James Madison

The Dukes are dealing with the departure of quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who transferred to UCF after leading them to a 12-1 season, creating uncertainty at the most critical position. New head coach Billy Napier inherits a program that projects as the 43rd-best team nationally (+3.4 rating) but faces significant roster turnover with 30 portal departures costing 214.2 PPA while adding just 20.9 PPA from 37 arrivals. The losses extend beyond Barnett to key skill players like receiver Landon Ellis (UCLA) and running back Wayne Knight (UCLA), though incoming quarterback Davi Belfort from UCF and offensive lineman Tyler Brown from Colorado provide some reinforcement.

JP+ projects 7.2 wins for the Dukes, who benefit from an elite defense that grades 27th nationally (+3.8 rating) but struggle with an offense that ranks 70th (-0.2). The defensive strength should keep James Madison competitive in most Sun Belt games, but the offensive uncertainty around the new signal-caller and rebuilt skill positions creates significant variance in outcomes. If the quarterback competition produces a capable replacement and the defensive continuity holds, the Dukes could push for nine wins and another strong Sun Belt showing. If not, the offensive limitations could drag them closer to .500 despite that defensive foundation.