JP+ One-Sheet

James Madison

Sun Belt | 2026

Projected Wins

7.7

Team Thesis

James Madison Brings In Billy Napier With A Defense Built To Cover For An Offense In Transition. Billy Napier takes over a program coming off a 12-1 season, and he inherits a roster defined by what left rather than what's staying.

Model Profile

#78

JP+ Rank

#75

Offense

#53

Defense

-1.1

Overall

-0.4

Offense

+0.8

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

8.5

Market

7.7

JP+

8.9

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.8 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#95

Rated coverage53%

Candidate members80

Rated players42

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path94%

5-1 start24%

Collapse risk18%

24% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 94%. Collapse risk 18% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 98% to 30%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the new starter settles quickly and the offensive line gels, James Madison's defense can push this team back toward the top of the Sun Belt.

Bear Case

6-6

If the transition drags, a step back toward the middle of the conference is the more likely outcome.

Sun Belt Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
James Madison	7.7	8.5	8.9
Marshall	7.6	7.5	7.7
Arkansas State	7.0	6.5	6.6
Louisiana	6.8	7.5	7.5
Appalachian State	6.8	5.5	6.2
Troy	6.4	6.5	7.2
Louisiana Tech	6.4	5.5	6.5
Old Dominion	6.1	7.5	7.2