Iowa State

The Cyclones are staring at their biggest rebuilding project in years after losing head coach Matt Campbell and watching him take a significant portion of their roster to Penn State through the transfer portal. New head coach Jimmy Rogers inherits a program that lost starting quarterback Rocco Becht (97.0 PPA) and key receivers Chase Sowell (29.2 PPA) and Brett Eskildsen (24.7 PPA) to their former coach's new destination. The defense grades out 40th nationally at +1.9 points, providing the foundation for a team that otherwise ranks 50th overall with an offense barely above water at 59th. Transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor arrives from Arkansas State with 95.0 PPA to compete for the starting job, while receiver Omari Hayes (31.0 PPA from Tulane) helps replace departed targets.

JP+ projects 6.3 wins for a Cyclones squad navigating significant structural instability across both sides of the ball, with quarterback continuity concerns and coverage attrition creating elevated variance in potential outcomes. The addition of EDGE Isaac Terrell from Washington State provides a defensive boost, but Rogers faces the challenge of replacing what amounts to a gutted depth chart while maintaining competitiveness in the Big 12. If the new signal-caller can establish early rhythm with the rebuilt receiving corps and the defense maintains its ranking despite personnel losses, Iowa State could surprise with bowl eligibility. If not, this transition year could test the program's foundation more severely than the modest projection suggests.