JP+ One-Sheet
Iowa State
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
5.9Team Thesis
Iowa State Starts Over Under Jimmy Rogers After Campbell's Departure to Penn State. The defining fact of Iowa State's offseason is what left, not what arrived.
Model Profile
#62
JP+ Rank
#67
Offense
#41
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
5.9
JP+
5.1
SP+
JP+ GAP: +1.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#70
Rated coverage60%
Candidate members92
Rated players55
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path57%
3-3 start79%
Collapse risk1%
79% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 57%. Collapse risk 1% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 96% to 19%.
Bull Case
7-5If Raynor wins the job cleanly and the defense's returning pieces hold up against real attrition up front, this group can push past 5.9 and comp…
Bear Case
4-8If the offensive line reset and secondary questions linger into October, a rebuilding year is the more likely outcome.
Big 12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| Utah | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Kansas State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Arizona | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| Oklahoma State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Iowa State | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Colorado | 5.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 |