The defining fact of Iowa State's offseason is what left, not what arrived. Matt Campbell is gone to Penn State, and he didn't go alone — quarterback Rocco Becht, receivers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen, running back Carson Hansen, and dozens of others followed him out the door, part of a portal exodus that saw 55 departures and 238.3 PPA walk off campus. New head coach Jimmy Rogers inherits a program with an above-average defensive foundation and a roughly average overall profile, but the roster underneath him looks different than the one that won eight games last fall. The staff countered with 47 arrivals, headlined by quarterback Jaylen Raynor from Arkansas State, receiver Omari Hayes from Tulane, tight end Tyler Fortenberry, and edge rusher Isaac Terrell from Washington State — a class built to replace bulk production, not necessarily match it man for man. The quarterback competition is genuinely open; call it the QB competition winner rather than assume continuity, since the incumbent is gone and Raynor arrives as the highest-profile addition at the position.

JP+ projects 6.0 wins, a number that reflects real uncertainty around an offense replacing its signal-caller, its offensive line, and much of its receiving corps in the same offseason, while the defense — already dealing with coverage attrition of its own — tries to hold the line. The schedule doesn't do Rogers any favors early, with road trips to Iowa, BYU, and Arizona representing the toughest stretch, while home dates against West Virginia, Bowling Green, and Southeast Missouri State offer the clearest paths to bank wins. The gap between that projection and any rosier outside expectations comes down to replacement confidence, which sits at medium given how much offensive continuity — quarterback, line, and target share alike — was lost in one cycle. If Raynor wins the job cleanly and the defense's returning pieces hold up against real attrition up front, this group can push past 5.9 and compete for bowl position again. If the offensive line reset and secondary questions linger into October, a rebuilding year is the more likely outcome.