Iowa State

The Cyclones are starting over after losing head coach Matt Campbell and watching him raid their roster via the transfer portal, taking quarterback Rocco Becht (97.0 PPA) and receivers Chase Sowell (29.2 PPA) and Brett Eskildsen (24.7 PPA) to Penn State. First-time head coach Jimmy Rogers inherits a program gutted by 55 portal departures that cost 238.3 PPA, though Iowa State did add 47 newcomers including quarterback Jaylen Raynor (95.0 PPA from Arkansas State) and receiver Omari Hayes (31.0 PPA from Tulane). The defense grades out 37th nationally at +2.6 points per game — by far the strongest unit — while the offense sits at a mediocre 56th and special teams rank 88th, combining for a +3.0 overall rating that places them 47th in the country.

JP+ projects 6.1 wins for a Iowa State squad that went 8-4 last season, with road games at Iowa and BYU plus a home date with Utah representing the toughest tests on a schedule that includes manageable home contests against Oklahoma State, Bowling Green, and Southeast Missouri State. The gap between last year's record and this year's projection reflects the talent drain that saw nearly 240 points of production walk out the door, offset only partially by incoming transfers like tight end Tyler Fortenberry (18.6 PPA from Arkansas State) and edge rusher Isaac Terrell from Washington State. If Rogers can quickly identify his new signal-caller and the defense maintains its strong play, Iowa State could surprise and approach bowl eligibility — but if the offensive transition stumbles, this could be a long rebuilding year in Ames.