Iowa

The blueprint is classic Iowa: pound the rock, let a top-10 defense create chaos, and hope tremendous incoming pass rushers can offset key departures up front. The Hawkeyes check in at No. 19 nationally with a +14.3 rating powered by elite defensive play (+9.8, ninth nationally) while the offense (+2.5, 37th) aims to establish more consistency. They lost running back Jaziun Patterson to Michigan State via the portal but added safety Tyler Brown from James Madison, their top transfer pickup at 10.7 PPA.

JP+ projects 7.7 wins for Iowa in what should be a competitive Big Ten slate, with home dates against Ohio State highlighting the toughest tests and a trio of manageable games against Purdue, Northern Illinois, and Northern Iowa offering win-total padding. The defense carries championship-level expectations, but continuity concerns around the pass rush and an unsettled quarterback competition create uncertainty around the team's ceiling. If the new signal-caller can manage games effectively and the ground attack stays healthy, this looks like a 10-win CFP contender. If not, eight wins feels more realistic in an unforgiving conference.