Iowa

Iowa's path to double-digit wins runs through a formula as reliable as it is effective: ground game plus rock-solid defense plus tremendous incoming pass rushers equals a classic 10-win CFP-hunt season. The Hawkeyes check in at No. 20 nationally with a +12.4 rating built on defensive excellence (+9.5, 13th nationally) while the offense (+2.4, 42nd) remains a work in progress. They lost running back Jaziun Patterson (8.6 PPA) to Michigan State via the portal but added safety Tyler Brown (10.7 PPA) from James Madison to anchor what should be another stingy defense. With Cade McNamara departed, the new signal-caller inherits a system designed around ball control and field position.

JP+ projects 7.8 wins for Iowa in a Big Ten schedule that features tough road tests at Michigan and Washington plus a home date with Ohio State. The gap between that projection and potential double-digit wins hinges on whether the running game can replace Patterson's production and how quickly the quarterback competition winner settles into the offense. If the defense maintains its elite standard and the pass rush lives up to its billing, Iowa has the foundation for a breakthrough season. If the offense stagnates, another 8-4 campaign feels more likely than playoff contention.