JP+ One-Sheet
Iowa
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
7.8Team Thesis
Ground Game and Front-Seven Rebuild Set Up Another CFP Push. The theme is straightforward: run it, stop everyone else, and figure out the quarterback spot along the way.
Model Profile
#18
JP+ Rank
#43
Offense
#10
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
7.5
Market
7.8
JP+
8.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#45
Rated coverage77%
Candidate members73
Rated players56
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path95%
4-2 start63%
Collapse risk5%
63% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 95%. Collapse risk 5% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 99% to 40%.
Bull Case
9-3If the ground game hits its stride and the front seven's newcomers pressure passers the way last year's group did, this is a 10-win team squarel…
Bear Case
6-6If not, 8-4 repeats and Iowa's floor becomes its ceiling.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |