Indiana

The Hoosiers enter 2026 in unfamiliar territory: defending a national title instead of chasing one. After completing a stunning 16-0 run to the championship, Indiana now carries the target that comes with being called 'the new Alabama,' built on aggressive portal recruiting and a veteran core that reloaded rather than rebuilt. The departure of Fernando Mendoza to the NFL Draft created the lone question mark, but TCU transfer Josh Hoover steps in with 158.1 PPA of proven production. The defense that ranked 10th nationally (+10.0 points) returns largely intact, while an offense that graded second in the country (+13.1) added weapons like Tulane receiver Shazz Preston and Michigan State's Nick Marsh to complement Hoover's arrival.

JP+ projects 9.3 wins for the defending champions, well below the market's 9.3-win expectation and reflecting the difficulty of repeating at college football's summit. The schedule includes brutal road tests at Michigan and Washington, plus a home showdown with Ohio State that could determine Big Ten supremacy. Indiana's +23.5 overall rating ranks second nationally, but the gap between hunter and hunted often proves wider than talent metrics suggest. If Hoover seamlessly replaces Mendoza's production and the defense maintains its elite level, another playoff run awaits. If the pressure of expectations disrupts the chemistry that fueled last year's perfection, even nine wins might prove optimistic.