Nobody sneaks up on Indiana anymore. After finishing 13-0, the Hoosiers spent the offseason answering the only question that matters for a defending champion: can you replace what left and still be the best team on the schedule? Fernando Mendoza is gone to the NFL Draft, and Indiana didn't flinch, going back to the portal for TCU's Josh Hoover, who arrives with 158.1 PPA production and steps directly into the job the new signal-caller has to win outright. The portal churn ran both directions — 17 departures worth 234.9 PPA lost, 17 arrivals worth 238.7 PPA gained — with Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, and Omar Cooper Jr. also out the door, replaced in part by Shazz Preston from Tulane and Nick Marsh from Michigan State. The qualitative profile still says elite team, with an elite offense and a defense that grades as top-tier and special teams rated above average, but the continuity math is real: offensive line returns just 53%, receiver targets return only 43%, and the front seven is dealing with edge attrition after losing pass-rush production. That's a defensive front reset sitting underneath an offense that has to replace its identity at quarterback.

JP+ still projects 9.8 wins out of 12, which reflects a team built to contend again even while working through change at the two spots — quarterback and the offensive front — that most often decide how these seasons go. The toughest stretch is obvious: Ohio State at home, and road trips to Washington and Michigan, are the games that will define whether Indiana is still the team everyone else is chasing. Home dates with North Texas, Western Kentucky, and Howard offer no such test. If Hoover settles in quickly and the offensive line holds up in the trenches, Indiana's ceiling is another Big Ten title run. If the quarterback transition or the edge-rush attrition drags into November, 9.8 wins is closer to the floor than people are currently pricing in.