Houston

Houston has quietly positioned itself as a trendy dark horse in the Big 12, with analysts suggesting the Cougars could become 'the next Indiana' and crash the College Football Playoff behind returning quarterback Conner Weigman and a veteran defense. The Cougars grade out at +4.2 points nationally (#40 overall), powered by a defense that ranks 38th (+2.6) and special teams units ranking 17th (+0.4), while the offense sits at 49th (+1.2). The transfer portal was kind to Houston, adding 58.8 PPA through 18 arrivals led by Oregon State receiver Trent Walker (42.5 PPA) and UTSA tight end Patrick Overmyer (17.3 PPA), while losing just 4.0 PPA through 16 departures including edge rusher Zion Taylor to Sam Houston.

JP+ projects 7.1 wins for the Cougars in 2026, creating value on the under 7.5 market with 50% expected value as Houston faces a challenging Big 12 slate that includes road trips to Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas State. The gap between projection and market reflects uncertainty about whether Weigman can elevate an offense that remains below-average despite the portal additions, and whether the defense can maintain its high level after a 9-3 campaign. If the veteran defense stays elite and Weigman takes a step forward with his new weapons, Houston could indeed crash the playoff conversation. If not, they're looking at another solid but unspectacular season in the middle of the Big 12 pack.