JP+ One-Sheet

Houston

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.7

Team Thesis

Houston Enters 2026 as the Big 12's Preferred Dark Horse Pick. The theme is obvious: Conner Weigman is back, the defense returns with real experience, and national analysts have started floating the same comparison — could Houston be the next Indian…

Model Profile

#52

JP+ Rank

#44

Offense

#68

Defense

+4.7

Overall

+2.2

Offense

+0.2

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

8.5

Market

6.7

JP+

7.4

SP+

JP+ GAP: -1.8 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#57

Rated coverage80%

Candidate members66

Rated players53

Season Path

Needs fast start

Bowl path80%

5-1 start19%

Collapse risk43%

19% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 80%. Collapse risk 43% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 10%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the offensive line gels quickly and Weigman stays healthy behind Walker's playmaking, Houston's ceiling matches the hype and a Playoff-calibe…

Bear Case

5-7

If the trenches struggle to gel or Weigman misses time, the floor is a middling season that undercuts the preseason storyline entirely.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4