JP+ One-Sheet
Houston
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.5
Model Profile
#48
JP+ Rank
#46
Off Adj
#63
Def Adj
Overall
+4.0
Offense
+2.0
Defense
+0.2
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
6.5
JP+
7.4
SP+
Bowl Path75%
Fast Start18%
Collapse Risk49%
Path Shape
Needs fast start
18% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 75%. Collapse risk 49% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 9%.
Big 12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| Utah | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Kansas State | 7.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Arizona | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UCF | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| TCU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| Kansas | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Houston | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| Arizona State | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Baylor | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 |