Hawaii

The Rainbow Warriors confront a massive receiver rebuild after losing Jackson Harris to LSU and Brandon White to Kansas State, stripping away 62.5 PPA from the passing game. Hawaii's offense grades out 91st nationally at -2.3 points per game, while the defense sits similarly at 95th, creating a team that projects as the 94th-best unit in college football with a -4.7 overall rating. Micah Alejado returns at quarterback after backup Luke Weaver transferred to San Jose State, and the portal additions of Devin Alves from Virginia Tech and Carson Brown from Iowa State provide some help but not nearly enough to replace the departed production.

JP+ projects 6.1 wins for Hawaii despite a schedule that includes road trips to Arizona State and Stanford among the toughest tests, balanced by home games against Sacramento State and San Jose State. The gap between projection and any higher expectations stems from an offense that lost far more than it gained through the portal — 82.0 PPA departed compared to just 12.6 arriving — leaving Alejado with fewer proven weapons. If the new receivers develop quickly and the defense can improve from its bottom-30 ranking, Hawaii could push toward bowl eligibility, but without that growth, another disappointing season looms.