JP+ One-Sheet
Hawaii
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
7.2Team Thesis
Hawaii Leans on Micah Alejado While the Secondary Rebuilds on the Fly. Hawaii's offseason theme is straightforward: keep what works up front and figure out coverage on the back end.
Model Profile
#83
JP+ Rank
#85
Offense
#94
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
7.2
JP+
7.7
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#107
Rated coverage64%
Candidate members78
Rated players50
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path88%
4-2 start42%
Collapse risk12%
42% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 88%. Collapse risk 12% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 81% to 19%.
Bull Case
9-3If Alejado's continuity at quarterback and along the offensive line offsets the receiver turnover, and the secondary stabilizes faster than the…
Bear Case
6-6If the coverage issues linger into conference play, a floor closer to six wins is the more realistic outcome.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |