JP+ One-Sheet
Hawaii
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
7.0
Model Profile
#84
JP+ Rank
#84
Off Adj
#94
Def Adj
Overall
-2.7
Offense
-1.4
Defense
-2.1
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
7.0
JP+
7.3
SP+
Bowl Path85%
Fast Start36%
Collapse Risk15%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
36% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 15% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 78% to 17%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |