Georgia State

The Panthers must replace virtually their entire roster after 39 players departed through the transfer portal, stripping away 54.6 points of production above average while adding just 9.4 PPA back. Coming off a brutal 1-11 season, Georgia State ranks 134th nationally in JP+'s preseason ratings at -18.4 points, with all three phases grading poorly: offense 121st, defense 136th, special teams 137th. The quarterback position epitomizes the upheaval, as TJ Finley transferred to Incarnate Word after throwing for 31.0 PPA, leaving the new signal-caller to emerge from an uncertain competition. Top receiver Javon Robinson (27.5 PPA) departed for Utah State, while the offensive line lost nearly all its continuity. The best portal addition was running back Keith Adams Jr. from Clemson (3.5 PPA), joined by Michigan transfer tackle Connor Jones and Northern Illinois back Jaylen Poe.

JP+ projects 4.4 wins for Georgia State in a Sun Belt that offers few gimmes beyond home dates against Coastal Carolina, Northern Illinois, and North Carolina A&T. Road trips to UCF, Appalachian State, and Arkansas State loom as the season's toughest tests for a program rebuilding from scratch. The defensive secondary lost significant coverage talent while the offensive line requires almost complete replacement, creating structural uncertainty on both sides of the ball. If the new quarterback develops quickly and the portal additions gel faster than expected, the Panthers could surprise in conference play. If not, another long season awaits in Atlanta.