JP+ One-Sheet
Georgia State
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
3.6Team Thesis
Georgia State Rebuilds Behind Center and Up Front After a One-Win Season. Georgia State's offseason theme is instability at the exact spots where teams need stability most: quarterback and the offensive line.
Model Profile
#132
JP+ Rank
#119
Offense
#132
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
3.5
Market
3.6
JP+
2.3
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
69% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 7%. Collapse risk 7% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 85% to 18%.
Bull Case
5-7If the new quarterback settles in quickly and Jones stabilizes the line, this team can scrap for four or five wins; if the secondary reset lags…
Bear Case
2-10If the new quarterback settles in quickly and Jones stabilizes the line, this team can scrap for four or five wins; if the secondary reset lags…
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Georgia State | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| ULM | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 |