JP+ One-Sheet
Georgia State
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
3.8
Model Profile
#133
JP+ Rank
#119
Off Adj
#134
Def Adj
Overall
-18.3
Offense
-5.5
Defense
-8.2
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
3.8
JP+
2.3
SP+
Bowl Path9%
Fast Start72%
Collapse Risk5%
Path Shape
Early equity
72% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 9%. Collapse risk 5% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 87% to 18%.
Sun Belt Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Marshall | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Appalachian State | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Troy | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Old Dominion | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Southern Miss | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Georgia State | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| ULM | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 |