Georgia State's offseason theme is instability at the exact spots where teams need stability most: quarterback and the offensive line. TJ Finley is gone to Incarnate Word, taking his 31.0 PPA with him, and the new signal-caller will inherit an offense that also lost leading wideout Javon Robinson (27.5 PPA) to Utah State and tight end Lane Wadle to Charlotte. The offensive line returns just 6% continuity by the model's accounting, a red flag for a unit trying to break in a new starter under center, though Michigan transfer tackle Connor Jones and a running back tandem of Clemson's Keith Adams Jr. and Northern Illinois' Jaylen Poe give the ground game some new faces to lean on. The broader profile fits a team picked in the bottom tier across offense, defense, and special teams, coming off a 1-11 season that left little proven depth anywhere on the roster.

JP+ projects 3.8 wins, and the schedule offers a real path to clearing last year's total even with true road tests at UCF, James Madison, and Marshall looming. Home dates against Coastal Carolina, Northern Illinois, and North Carolina A&T stand out as the most realistic building blocks. The gap between projection and any rosier outside expectation comes down to coverage attrition on defense and target-share turnover on offense, both flagged as moderate risk with medium confidence in the replacements. If the new quarterback settles in quickly and Jones stabilizes the line, this team can scrap for four or five wins; if the secondary reset lags and the ground game can't cover for a shaky passing attack, another one-win-range season is very much in play.