Fresno State

Fresno State enters its inaugural Pac-12 season dealing with significant offensive attrition through the transfer portal. The Bulldogs lost 19.2 points per addition (PPA) in departures while adding just 3.5 PPA in arrivals, creating a substantial production gap that explains their -2.5 offensive rating (93rd nationally). Top departure Richie Anderson took his 17.7 PPA to Texas A&M, leaving a hole at tight end that newcomer Jake Appleget from Northern Illinois will attempt to fill. Quarterback E.J. Warner returns as the starter, providing stability at the position despite backup Carson Conklin transferring to Sacramento State and Maryland transfer Khristian Martin arriving to bolster depth.

JP+ projects 5.8 wins for Fresno State in an 11-game schedule, with the defense grading out respectably at +0.4 (59th nationally) to offset offensive concerns. The Bulldogs' special teams unit ranks 42nd nationally, but their -2.0 overall power rating places them 80th in the country heading into conference play. Road trips to USC, San Diego State, and Texas State represent the toughest tests, while home games against Sacramento State, Oregon State, and Rice offer the best opportunities for victories. If Warner can overcome the departure of key skill position talent and the offense finds unexpected contributors, Fresno State could exceed modest expectations. If not, the defensive unit will need to carry an outsized load to reach bowl eligibility.