E.J. Warner returns as the starter, so this isn't a quarterback change story in the way the portal traffic might suggest. Carson Conklin left for Sacramento State, but he barely played, and the more relevant losses sit around Warner rather than under center. Richie Anderson took 17.7 PPA of production to Texas A&M, and Johnathan Arceneaux is also gone, which means Warner's returning weapons look thinner than his own track record does. Fresno State countered by bringing in Khristian Martin from Maryland and tight end Jake Appleget from Northern Illinois, but target share around the offense is essentially rebuilding from zero. The defense, by contrast, profiles above average and carried the program to an 8-4 finish last year. It'll need to carry things again, even while replacing coverage pieces after Jayden Davis left for UConn and the group works through what the numbers describe as coverage attrition. Overall, this looks like a roughly average team: a defense doing more than its share, an offense that's a tick below average, and special teams neither helping nor hurting.

JP+ projects 6.1 wins, while the market number sits at 7.5, with the under carrying value in that framework. The gap traces directly to the offense's uncertain replacement path — 0% returning target share and a receiving corps still finding its shape — set against a defense that should keep games competitive even if the passing attack sputters early. The schedule doesn't do them many favors either, with road trips to USC, San Diego State, and Texas State among the toughest tests, while home dates with Oregon State, Rice, and Sacramento State offer the clearest paths to bank wins. If Warner finds a reliable set of targets and the secondary replacements settle in quickly, this group can hover around bowl eligibility again. If the receiving corps stays unsettled into conference play, six wins looks like the more honest outcome.