JP+ One-Sheet
Fresno State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.1
Model Profile
#79
JP+ Rank
#103
Off Adj
#51
Def Adj
Overall
-1.4
Offense
-3.3
Defense
+1.1
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
6.1
JP+
6.3
SP+
Bowl Path67%
Fast Start49%
Collapse Risk13%
Path Shape
Front-loaded
49% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 67%. Collapse risk 13% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 80% to 45%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |