JP+ One-Sheet
Fresno State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.0Team Thesis
Fresno State Leans on Its Defense Again While the Passing Game Rebuilds Around the Edges. E.J.
Model Profile
#80
JP+ Rank
#104
Offense
#51
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
6.5
Market
6.0
JP+
6.9
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.5 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#96
Rated coverage70%
Candidate members80
Rated players56
Season Path
Front-loaded
Bowl path66%
4-2 start49%
Collapse risk13%
49% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 66%. Collapse risk 13% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 81% to 41%.
Bull Case
8-3If Warner finds a reliable set of targets and the secondary replacements settle in quickly, this group can hover around bowl eligibility again.
Bear Case
5-6If the receiving corps stays unsettled into conference play, six wins looks like the more honest outcome.
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |