Florida State's offseason is about replacing volume with volume. Tommy Castellanos is gone, and so is the identity he gave this offense, which means a new signal-caller takes over behind an offensive line that kept 60% of its starts intact. The headline addition is Texas transfer running back Quintrevion Wisner, brought in to replace Gavin Sawchuk after he left for Northwestern, while Ashton Daniels arrives from Auburn as the top PPA addition in a 22-man incoming class that's trying to offset 43 departures. Lawayne McCoy's move to Louisville and Randy Pittman Jr.'s exit to SMU strip away more proven targets, leaving just 14% of returning target share — a real concentration risk even for a group that projects as top-tier. The defense, which held things together last year, grades as above average again, though role loss and coverage attrition are real enough that the secondary bears watching. Special teams looks roughly average, neither an asset nor a liability. Put together, this is a team built to fix the turnover margin and skill-position production that sank a 5-7 season, with Wisner as the headline name meant to stabilize the ground game immediately.

JP+ projects 7.1 wins, and the market's Over 6.5 sits at 51% — a gap that reflects real optimism about the offensive talent infusion tempered by genuine uncertainty at quarterback and in coverage. Miami on the road, a trip to Alabama, and a home date with Florida headline the toughest stretch, while Boston College, New Mexico State, and Central Arkansas offer the clearest paths to bankable wins. If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and Wisner provides the workhorse presence Sawchuk once did, this offense could push toward its ceiling and turn 7.1 into something closer to the 2023 form Florida State is chasing. If the quarterback competition lingers or the secondary's replacements are slower to jell, a below-average floor near six wins is just as plausible.