JP+ One-Sheet
Florida State
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.1
Model Profile
#30
JP+ Rank
#17
Off Adj
#44
Def Adj
Overall
+7.9
Offense
+6.5
Defense
+1.7
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
7.1
JP+
6.6
SP+
Bowl Path86%
Fast Start93%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Early equity
93% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 86%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 99% to 62%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Pitt | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |