JP+ One-Sheet
Florida State
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.1Team Thesis
Florida State Rebuilds the Backfield and the Quarterback Room at the Same Time. Florida State's offseason is about replacing volume with volume.
Model Profile
#32
JP+ Rank
#16
Offense
#42
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
7.1
JP+
6.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: +1.6 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#20
Rated coverage79%
Candidate members81
Rated players64
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path85%
3-3 start92%
Collapse risk1%
92% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk1: 97% to 58%.
Bull Case
9-3If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and Wisner provides the workhorse presence Sawchuk once did, this offense could push toward its ceil…
Bear Case
6-6If the quarterback competition lingers or the secondary's replacements are slower to jell, a below-average floor near six wins is just as plausi…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |