Florida State

The Seminoles' bounce-back hopes center on new playmakers — headlined by Texas transfer RB Quintrevion Wisner — plus addressing the turnover issues that derailed their 2025 campaign and preventing a repeat of the 5-7 disappointment that followed their 2023 success. Florida State grades out 25th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at +9.2 points, driven by a potent offense that ranks 15th (+7.2) while the defense sits 43rd (+2.1) and special teams lag at 63rd. The transfer portal brought significant roster churn with 43 departures costing 129.1 PPA, partially offset by 22 arrivals adding 66.4 PPA led by Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels (39.8 PPA). Key losses include running back Gavin Sawchuk (33.3 PPA) to Northwestern, receiver Lawayne McCoy (30.8 PPA) to Louisville, and tight end Randy Pittman Jr. (24.4 PPA) to SMU, while additions beyond Daniels and Wisner include East Carolina tight end Desirrio Riles (20.4 PPA).

JP+ projects 7.4 wins for Florida State, creating value on the over 6.5 market bet with 39% expected value, though road tests at Miami and Alabama plus the annual Florida rivalry game represent the season's steepest challenges. The gap between projection and market reflects optimism around the offensive talent infusion, particularly if Wisner can anchor the ground game while the new signal-caller — whether Daniels or another quarterback competition winner — provides stability under center. If the turnover fixes take hold and Wisner delivers immediate impact, the Seminoles could challenge for nine wins and ACC relevance. If the defensive struggles persist and offensive chemistry takes time to develop, another mediocre season looms.