Florida State

Florida State's offseason centers on adding explosive talent through the transfer portal after a 5-7 campaign that fell well short of expectations. The Seminoles rank 27th nationally in JP+ preseason ratings at +8.0 points, driven by a 15th-ranked offense (+6.2) that should benefit from new arrivals like Texas transfer running back Quintrevion Wisner, who headlines the key additions. Auburn transfer quarterback Ashton Daniels (39.8 PPA) leads the incoming class and figures prominently in the quarterback competition, while the program also added East Carolina tight end Desirrio Riles (20.4 PPA) to help replace departed contributors like Lawayne McCoy (Louisville) and Randy Pittman Jr. (SMU). The defense grades out 41st nationally (+1.8), facing moderate continuity challenges after coverage attrition.

JP+ projects 7.8 wins for Florida State, well above the market's 6.5-win over/under that offers 74% expected value according to the model. The gap stems largely from offensive optimism, as the new signal-caller inherits a unit that should create more explosive plays with Wisner in the backfield and improved skill position depth. Road trips to Miami and Alabama represent the season's toughest tests, while home games against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas provide opportunities to build momentum. If the quarterback competition produces a reliable starter and the defense improves its coverage consistency, Florida State could challenge for eight or nine wins. If not, another mediocre season looms despite the talent infusion.