Florida

New head coach Jon Sumrall inherits a program coming off a dismal 4-8 season, but his defensive expertise combined with Georgia Tech transfer quarterback Aaron Philo offers hope for Florida's first winning campaign since 2019. The Gators grade out as the 24th-best team nationally in JP+'s preseason rankings at +9.8 points, powered by a defense that projects 20th nationally (+5.0) while the offense sits a more modest 34th (+2.8). Florida lost significant offensive firepower when DJ Lagway (51.0 PPA) transferred to Baylor, along with receivers Aidan Mizell and Eugene Wilson III, but added East Carolina running back London Montgomery (22.3 PPA) and Auburn receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (16.5 PPA) to help reload.

JP+ projects 8.0 wins for the Gators, putting them over the market's 7.5-win total with a 29% edge value, banking on Sumrall's defensive system stabilizing a unit that showed flashes last season. The offense carries moderate continuity risk after losing its quarterback and key skill position players, but the addition of proven transfers like Montgomery and tight end Luke Harpring from Georgia Tech provides immediate experience. If Philo can efficiently manage the offense while Sumrall's defense holds up against an SEC gauntlet that includes road trips to Texas and Florida State, the Gators could surprise with their second winning season in six years. If the offensive chemistry takes too long to develop, they're stuck in the middle of the league pack again.