Florida

New head coach Jon Sumrall takes over a program coming off a disappointing 4-8 season but finds a defense that already ranks 19th nationally in JP+ projections (+5.8 points) and special teams units grading 11th. The offense struggled mightily and lost starting quarterback DJ Lagway (51.0 PPA) to Baylor via the transfer portal, but Sumrall countered by bringing in Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo to lead what projects as the 31st-ranked unit nationally. Key arrivals include East Carolina running back London Montgomery (22.3 PPA), Auburn receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (16.5 PPA), and Georgia Tech tight end Luke Harpring (13.2 PPA) to help replace departed receivers Aidan Mizell and Eugene Wilson III.

JP+ projects 6.8 wins for the Gators, who face a brutal SEC slate featuring road trips to Texas and neutral-site battles with Georgia among their toughest tests. The gap between that projection and Florida's recent struggles stems largely from Sumrall's defensive acumen and the program's ability to compete in games like the home matchup against Ole Miss while banking easier victories against Kentucky, FAU, and Campbell. If Philo can provide the stability this offense lacked and the defense maintains its effectiveness, Florida could reach that second winning season in six years. If the quarterback transition stumbles, another long season awaits in Gainesville.