JP+ One-Sheet

Florida

SEC | 2026

Projected Wins

7.6

Team Thesis

Jon Sumrall Inherits a Defense Built to Win Now and a Quarterback Job Up for Grabs. Florida hired Jon Sumrall away to fix what Billy Napier couldn't, and the plan is straightforward: let a defense that already looks top-tier carry the program while…

Model Profile

#13

JP+ Rank

#34

Offense

#14

Defense

+16.2

Overall

+4.1

Offense

+8.2

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

7.5

Market

7.6

JP+

7.0

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#9

Rated coverage81%

Candidate members84

Rated players68

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path93%

4-2 start80%

Collapse risk7%

80% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 93%. Collapse risk 7% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.9 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 58%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the QB competition produces a clear, capable answer and the offensive line holds its 78% continuity together, Florida's defense and special t…

Bear Case

6-6

If the passing game stays unsettled into October, Sumrall's debut season looks more like a bridge than a breakthrough.

SEC Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Georgia	9.2	10.5	9.9
LSU	8.7	8.5	8.5
Texas A&M	8.5	8.5	8.5
Texas	7.9	9.5	8.2
Ole Miss	7.8	8.5	7.2
Florida	7.6	7.5	7.0
Oklahoma	7.6	8.5	7.5
Tennessee	7.4	7.5	7.9