FIU

The Panthers' offseason revolves around quarterback instability and the hope that Appalachian State transfer JJ Kohl can provide the stability that departed signal-caller Keyone Jenkins couldn't. FIU's JP+ rating of -8.3 points ranks 112th nationally, with an offense grading out at -4.8 points (#114) that desperately needs Kohl's 81.8 PPA arrival to offset losses like receiver Alex Perry (31.8 PPA to Illinois) and tight end Dallas Payne (20.9 PPA). The defense projects slightly better at -2.9 points (#103), but coverage attrition creates structural uncertainty across the secondary that could undermine any offensive improvements.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins for the Panthers, a number that hinges entirely on whether Kohl can translate his Appalachian State success to Conference USA competition. The offensive line reset compounds quarterback transition concerns, creating moderate continuity risk across the entire offensive foundation just as FIU faces road tests at Delaware, South Florida, and Jacksonville State. If Kohl quickly establishes chemistry with his new receivers and the line gels early, eight wins isn't unrealistic given a favorable home slate. If the offensive transitions drag into conference play, four wins becomes the more likely ceiling.