JP+ One-Sheet

FIU

Conference USA | 2026

Projected Wins

6.6

Team Thesis

FIU Turns the Page at Quarterback While Rebuilding Its Trenches. The defining story of FIU's offseason is the quarterback change nobody chose but everyone saw coming once Keyone Jenkins left for UCF.

Model Profile

#109

JP+ Rank

#113

Offense

#98

Defense

-7.7

Overall

-4.3

Offense

-2.6

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

6.5

Market

6.6

JP+

6.2

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#92

Rated coverage77%

Candidate members82

Rated players63

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path78%

4-2 start38%

Collapse risk8%

38% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 78%. Collapse risk 8% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 78% to 30%.

Bull Case

8-4

If Kohl settles in quickly and the offensive line finds cohesion faster than expected, FIU can push past its projection and control its own bowl…

Bear Case

5-7

If the QB competition lingers or the coverage unit keeps bleeding explosive plays, 6.6 wins could prove optimistic.

Conference USA Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Liberty	8.2	8.5	8.9
Jacksonville State	7.5	7.5	8.0
Western Kentucky	6.9	6.5	7.1
FIU	6.6	6.5	6.2
Kennesaw State	6.6	--	6.6
Delaware	6.1	6.5	5.9
Missouri State	5.0	3.5	4.1
Middle Tennessee	4.3	3.5	3.0