The defining story of FIU's offseason is the quarterback change nobody chose but everyone saw coming once Keyone Jenkins left for UCF. He took 35.4 points of PPA production with him, and the program dipped into the portal to answer it, landing JJ Kohl from Appalachian State as the headline addition of a 16-player incoming class. Kohl arrives with 81.8 PPA of his own, a near dollar-for-dollar swap against the 89.2 PPA lost across 21 departures, but replacing a starter is never just about the numbers. Alex Perry's departure to Illinois strips away a proven target, and Dallas Payne leaving at tight end thins the pass-catching corps further. Add in an offensive line replacing over half its returning starts and a defense dealing with real coverage attrition, and the picture is one of a below-average overall team whose offense projects as the bottom-tier unit, propped up only marginally by a defense and special teams group both grading below average as well.

JP+ pegs FIU at 6.6 wins, a number shaped heavily by the schedule split — road trips to South Florida, FAU, and Liberty stand out as the toughest tests, while home dates against Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston, and Long Island University offer the clearest paths to bowl eligibility. The gap between that projection and any rosier market expectation traces directly to the structural uncertainty here: a new signal-caller learning a rebuilt line, and a secondary replacing lost coverage snaps without a clear like-for-like answer. If Kohl settles in quickly and the offensive line finds cohesion faster than expected, FIU can push past its projection and control its own bowl fate. If the QB competition lingers or the coverage unit keeps bleeding explosive plays, 6.7 wins could prove optimistic.