East Carolina

The transfer portal giveth and taketh away, but for East Carolina it mostly took. The Pirates lost starting quarterback Katin Houser (148.6 PPA) to Illinois while hemorrhaging 26 departures worth 251.3 PPA, compared to just 22 arrivals adding 54.9 PPA. The defensive unit that powered last year's 8-4 campaign remains the program's strength, grading out 53rd nationally at +1.1 points, while the offense slipped to 76th at -0.8 points. Miami transfer Ray Ray Joseph should help offset the loss of receiver Yannick Smith to SMU, and Texas Tech transfer Mitch Griffis (14.0 PPA) figures prominently in the quarterback competition to replace Houser.

JP+ projects 6.9 wins for a Pirates squad that combines defensive reliability with offensive uncertainty. The defense's +1.1 rating suggests another bowl-eligible season is within reach, but games against Alabama on the road and Army away from Greenville represent significant challenges in a schedule that also includes winnable contests against Rice at home and Charlotte on the road. If the new signal-caller can manage the offense efficiently and Joseph provides the expected receiving boost, East Carolina should hover around that seven-win mark. If the quarterback transition stumbles early, the defense alone may not be enough to prevent a step backward in the competitive American Athletic Conference.