JP+ One-Sheet

East Carolina

American | 2026

Projected Wins

7.4

Team Thesis

East Carolina Loses Its Quarterback But Not Its Identity. The defining offseason story in Greenville is the departure of Katin Houser, who left for Illinois after producing 148.6 PPA, the largest single loss on a roster that saw 26 players exit via…

Model Profile

#72

JP+ Rank

#77

Offense

#46

Defense

+0.2

Overall

-0.5

Offense

+1.3

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

7.5

Market

7.4

JP+

7.6

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#80

Rated coverage69%

Candidate members80

Rated players55

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path91%

4-2 start73%

Collapse risk9%

73% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 9% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk12: 85% to 36%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and Joseph produces like his Miami tape suggested, this group can push past 7.4 and contend in the A…

Bear Case

6-6

If the quarterback transition drags and the secondary's coverage issues linger, a step back toward .500 territory is the more likely outcome.

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
UTSA	7.2	7.5	7.5
Tulsa	6.7	5.5	6.6
FAU	6.4	5.5	6.5