The defining question for Duke this offseason isn't whether the roster took a hit — it's how much the losses actually matter. Darian Mensah is gone to Miami after a 183.9-PPA season, and Cooper Barkate and Que'Sean Brown followed him out the door to Miami and Virginia Tech. That's real production walking off campus. But the response wasn't panic — it was continuity. Braden Miller arrives from Cal to anchor the offensive line, which returns 74% of its snaps, and Walker Eget comes in from San Jose State as the presumptive answer at quarterback after posting 129.7 PPA there. The qualitative profile still reads as an above-average offense paired with a defense that lags behind, with special teams standing out as a genuine team strength. Duke won the ACC last season at 8-5, and while the departures beyond the quarterback spot are substantial — 19 players out compared to 17 in — the defensive side of the roster shows no major role-loss red flags, which offers some stability while the new signal-caller settles in.

JP+ projects 6.3 wins, a number that likely sits below what the market expects from a defending conference champion. The gap is mostly about offensive continuity — 50% overall roster return on that side and just 14% returning targets means Eget or whoever wins the job will be throwing to a lot of new faces, even with Javen Nicholas and Nate Kurisky added via the portal. The schedule doesn't do them favors either, with road trips to Miami, Virginia, and Illinois representing the toughest stretches, while home games against Stanford, Tulane, and William & Mary offer the clearest paths to wins. If the new signal-caller hits the ground running and the offensive line holds up behind Miller, this team plays closer to its 2025 form and pushes past 6.3 comfortably. If the passing game needs a half-season to gel, the defense may not be equipped to cover for it, and Duke looks more like a middle-of-the-pack ACC team than a repeat champion.