JP+ One-Sheet
Duke
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
6.3Team Thesis
Duke Absorbs Its Losses and Bets on Continuity Everywhere Else. The defining question for Duke this offseason isn't whether the roster took a hit — it's how much the losses actually matter.
Model Profile
#56
JP+ Rank
#27
Offense
#93
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
6.3
JP+
6.4
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
90% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 71%. Collapse risk 3% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 94% to 42%.
Bull Case
8-4If the new signal-caller hits the ground running and the offensive line holds up behind Miller, this team plays closer to its 2025 form and push…
Bear Case
5-7If the passing game needs a half-season to gel, the defense may not be equipped to cover for it, and Duke looks more like a middle-of-the-pack A…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Pitt | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.4 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 |