JP+ One-Sheet
Duke
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
6.3
Model Profile
#58
JP+ Rank
#30
Off Adj
#100
Def Adj
Overall
+2.2
Offense
+4.2
Defense
-2.5
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
6.3
JP+
6.5
SP+
Bowl Path71%
Fast Start91%
Collapse Risk3%
Path Shape
Early equity
91% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 71%. Collapse risk 3% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 94% to 41%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Pitt | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |