Duke

The defending ACC champions must replace their starting quarterback after Darian Mensah transferred to Miami, taking his 183.9 PPA with him. Duke's JP+ rating sits at -0.2 points (64th nationally), buoyed by a surprisingly potent offense that grades 28th at +3.6 but anchored by a defense that ranks 109th at -3.5. The Blue Devils added San Jose State transfer Walker Eget (129.7 PPA) to compete for the starting job, while also losing key receiving targets Cooper Barkate (64.3 PPA, to Miami) and Que'Sean Brown (32.1 PPA, to Virginia Tech). Offensive line stability remains strong at 74% continuity, with Cal transfer Braden Miller joining to bolster the front five.

JP+ projects 6.0 wins for Duke, reflecting the mixed continuity profile that features stable defensive personnel but significant offensive turnover beyond the quarterback position. The new signal-caller will inherit an offense that lost 50% of its returning production, though the defense should provide a steadier foundation after keeping most key contributors. Road trips to Miami, Illinois, and Virginia represent the season's toughest tests, while home games against Stanford, Tulane, and William & Mary offer the clearest paths to victory. If the quarterback competition produces a capable starter and the defense maintains last year's form, Duke could surprise and defend their conference title - but if the offensive transition stumbles, a step back toward .500 becomes likely.