Duke

The defending ACC champions face their biggest test yet: proving last season's breakthrough wasn't lightning caught in a bottle. Duke lost 289.2 PPA through 19 portal departures, headlined by quarterback Darian Mensah (183.9 PPA) to Miami, along with receivers Cooper Barkate and Que'Sean Brown who followed suit. The Blue Devils countered by adding Walker Eget from San Jose State (129.7 PPA) and securing offensive tackle Braden Miller from Cal to maintain continuity up front. JP+ sees a team still built around offensive firepower, ranking 20th nationally at +6.1 points, but the defense remains a major liability at 124th (-5.4 points) despite the championship run.

JP+ projects 5.5 wins for Duke, suggesting significant regression from last year's 8-5 mark, with brutal road tests at Miami, Illinois, and Georgia Tech looming large. The gap between expectation and recent results hinges entirely on whether Eget or another signal-caller can replicate Mensah's production while the defense finds answers it couldn't last season. If the new quarterback seamlessly steps in and the offensive line maintains its protection, Duke could surprise skeptics and stay competitive in ACC play. If not, this looks like a program returning to earth after one magical season.