Cincinnati

The Bearcats enter the Big 12 season navigating a quarterback transition after losing Brendan Sorsby (176.2 PPA) to Texas Tech in the portal. Cincinnati's JP+ rating of +0.8 points ranks 55th nationally, with an offense that grades out 39th (+2.5) but a defense that slips to 82nd (-1.5). The program held serve on talent level by adding Oklahoma transfer JaVonnie Gibson to anchor the receiving corps alongside Kent State transfer Cade Wolford, while Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV (104.3 PPA) enters the quarterback competition. New coordinators Pete Thomas (offense) and Nate Woody (defense) inherit a roster with significant turnover — 23 departures and 22 arrivals through the portal.

JP+ projects 7.0 wins for Cincinnati in 2026, suggesting another bowl-eligible campaign despite the continuity challenges. The offense carries the heaviest burden with quarterback uncertainty and only 24% target share returning, while the defense faces coverage attrition in the secondary. Home games against Texas Tech, Boston College, and Miami (OH) provide winnable opportunities, but road trips to BYU and Arizona loom as potential season-defining tests. If the new signal-caller can mesh quickly with Gibson and the receiving corps, the Bearcats could push for eight wins and Big 12 respectability. If the quarterback transition stalls, that 82nd-ranked defense might not hold up against conference competition.