JP+ One-Sheet

Cincinnati

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.4

Team Thesis

Cincinnati Replaces Sorsby and Retools Its Staff Without Losing Its Floor. Brendan Sorsby is gone, off to Texas Tech after leaving as the program's most productive offensive piece, and that's the theme of Cincinnati's offseason: managing a real quar…

Model Profile

#39

JP+ Rank

#30

Offense

#69

Defense

+6.1

Overall

+4.4

Offense

+0.1

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.4

JP+

5.8

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.9 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#79

Rated coverage69%

Candidate members78

Rated players54

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path72%

3-3 start93%

Collapse risk3%

93% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 72%. Collapse risk 3% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk8: 55% to 17%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the secondary replacements hold up under Woody's system, this group pushes comfortably past the…

Bear Case

5-7

If the quarterback transition proves rockier than expected, 6-6 or 5-7 is the more realistic range.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
Kansas	6.4	5.5	5.9
Cincinnati	6.4	5.5	5.8
Baylor	6.3	6.5	5.9