Charlotte

Charlotte's offseason centered on a massive roster renovation through the transfer portal, adding 38.6 points of Player Performance Analytics while losing only 8.3 points despite 27 departures. The 49ers rank 136th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at -20.0 points, with both offense (-9.7, 133rd) and defense (-8.8, 134th) grading among the nation's worst after a brutal 1-11 campaign. The headliner arrival is receiver Jaden Barnes from Appalachian State, bringing 30.5 PPA to replace departed wideout Javen Nicholas (14.9 PPA), while quarterback Grayson Loftis returns as starter with backup Cole Gonzales transferring in from Pitt.

JP+ projects 3.6 wins for Charlotte, making the over 2.5 wins bet marginally favorable at 47% expected value in what should be another challenging American Athletic Conference slate. The 49ers face a mixed continuity profile with moderate offensive uncertainty driven by offensive line turnover, though defensive continuity remains stable heading into 2026. If Barnes and the portal additions can immediately contribute alongside Loftis' continued development, Charlotte could approach four or five wins and show genuine improvement. If the new pieces struggle to mesh or the offensive line issues persist, another sub-three-win season looms in a loaded AAC.