JP+ One-Sheet

Charlotte

American | 2026

Projected Wins

2.8

Team Thesis

Charlotte Rebuilds Around Grayson Loftis Behind a Retooled Offensive Line. The defining theme this offseason is continuity at quarterback paired with churn nearly everywhere else.

Model Profile

#134

JP+ Rank

#135

Offense

#130

Defense

-20.3

Overall

-10.6

Offense

-7.4

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

2.5

Market

2.8

JP+

2.5

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#109

Rated coverage69%

Candidate members64

Rated players44

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path1%

2-4 start53%

Collapse risk2%

53% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 1%. Collapse risk 2% (0 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 89% to 1%.

Bull Case

4-8

If the offensive line stabilizes faster than the moderate continuity risk suggests, this group can be competitive in its winnable games and push…

Bear Case

1-11

If the offensive line stabilizes faster than the moderate continuity risk suggests, this group can be competitive in its winnable games and push…

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
Rice	3.8	3.5	3.6
Charlotte	2.8	2.5	2.5