Joey Labas is back under center after a 7-5 season, and that continuity at the sport's most important position is about the only settled thing about this Central Michigan roster. The receiver room lost its top two producers, with Tyson Davis (24.4 PPA) heading to Virginia and Langston Lewis (21.6 PPA) hitting the portal undeclared, stripping away 3% target-share continuity and leaving Labas to build new chemistry from scratch. The offensive line returns just over half its snaps, a moderate reset that will shape how much Labas can actually do even with familiarity at quarterback. On defense, coverage attrition is the headline concern, with real role loss and secondary snaps departing alongside the receiver corps. The overall profile grades out below average, with an offense that sits in the bottom tier and a defense and special teams both graded below average as well. The portal ledger reflects the churn: 16 departures and 39.1 PPA lost against 12 arrivals worth 5.9 PPA, with running back Vaughn Blue arriving from Liberty as the headline addition after Trey Cornist left for UConn.

JP+ projects 6.2 wins, a number that reflects a team with a proven quarterback but thin depth behind him at receiver, along the line, and in the secondary. The schedule offers a path — Akron, Sacramento State, and Colgate at home are clear opportunities — while road trips to Miami and New Mexico and a home date with Miami (OH) loom as the toughest tests. The gap between market expectations and the model likely comes down to how much stock one puts in Labas's returning experience offsetting the moderate line reset and coverage losses; medium replacement confidence means this projection carries more uncertainty than most. If the offensive line gels quickly and the new pieces at receiver and in the secondary find their footing, this group could push toward bowl eligibility again. If the trench and coverage questions linger into November, a step back toward five or six wins is the more likely outcome.'