Tosh Lupoi takes over a Cal program that just ran one of the more aggressive portal offseasons in the country, and the headline piece is stability under center rather than change: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns as the starting quarterback, giving Lupoi a foundation to build around instead of a rebuild at the position. The portal work around him is what makes this team interesting — 32 arrivals against 36 departures, headlined by Ohio wide receiver Chase Hendricks and his 66.1 PPA, plus Rutgers transfer Ian Strong and Colorado State's Jackson Brousseau adding competition and depth. Cal did lose pieces, including tight end Landon Morris to Wake Forest and running back Kendrick Raphael to SMU, but the incoming class outweighs those losses on paper. The overall profile grades out as roughly average, with an offense that projects similarly average and a defense in the same range, though special teams stands out as a clear above-average unit. Structurally, the defense carries more uncertainty than the offense — continuity concerns around edge pressure and coverage replacement are flagged internally, a product of significant attrition up front, even as the offense returns its quarterback and a majority of its skill-position targets.

JP+ projects Cal at 5.9 wins, a number that reflects both the promise of the portal additions and the real questions about defensive rebuild along the front. The toughest stretch runs through road trips to SMU, Virginia, and NC State, while home dates against Wake Forest, Stanford, and Wagner offer the clearest paths to bank wins. The gap between preseason buzz around Sagapolutele and the portal class versus a more modest projected win total comes down to defensive replacement — new pieces need to hold up against a schedule that doesn't offer many easy weeks. If the front seven replacements settle in and the secondary holds together, this team's offensive continuity and portal talent could push Cal into the ACC title mix. If the defensive attrition proves too much to overcome quickly, 5.9 wins is a fair reflection of a team still finding its identity under a new coach.