JP+ One-Sheet
Cal
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
6.1Team Thesis
Cal Bets on Tosh Lupoi and a Reshaped Roster to Contend Immediately in the ACC. Tosh Lupoi takes over a Cal program that just ran one of the more aggressive portal offseasons in the country, and the headline piece is stability under center rather th…
Model Profile
#63
JP+ Rank
#63
Offense
#64
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
6.5
Market
6.1
JP+
5.9
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
40% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 63%. Collapse risk 16% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 99% to 38%.
Bull Case
8-4If the front seven replacements settle in and the secondary holds together, this team's offensive continuity and portal talent could push Cal in…
Bear Case
5-7If the defensive attrition proves too much to overcome quickly, 6.1 wins is a fair reflection of a team still finding its identity under a new c…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Wake Forest | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 |