JP+ One-Sheet
Cal
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
5.9
Model Profile
#60
JP+ Rank
#64
Off Adj
#64
Def Adj
Overall
+2.0
Offense
+0.2
Defense
+0.1
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
5.9
JP+
6.1
SP+
Bowl Path58%
Fast Start37%
Collapse Risk20%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
37% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 58%. Collapse risk 20% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 99% to 33%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Wake Forest | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| North Carolina | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.4 |