Cal

A special transfer portal run plus star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele under new head coach Tosh Lupoi creates an instant ACC title mix for the Golden Bears. Cal's +0.4 JP+ rating (#64 nationally) reflects a balanced but unspectacular team — offense at +0.3 (#59), defense at +0.1 (#66) — that was dramatically reshaped by portal activity. The Bears lost 36 players including tight end Landon Morris (6.3 PPA) to Wake Forest but added 32 newcomers led by receiver Chase Hendricks (66.1 PPA) from Ohio, quarterback Jackson Brousseau (42.0 PPA) from Colorado State, and receiver Ian Strong (41.1 PPA) from Rutgers. That 218.8 PPA gained versus 11.0 lost represents one of the nation's most aggressive portal strategies.

JP+ projects 6.5 wins for Cal in a schedule featuring road tests at SMU and NC State plus a home date with Virginia Tech as the toughest matchups, balanced by home games against UCLA, Stanford, and Wagner. The Bears' modest ratings suggest the portal additions haven't yet translated into elite projected performance, but the raw talent influx gives Lupoi immediate pieces to work with in his first season. If Sagapolutele can maximize the new receiving corps and the defense holds steady under pressure, an ACC Championship game appearance isn't impossible. If the portal pieces don't mesh quickly, Cal could struggle to reach bowl eligibility in a competitive conference.