One loss all year to anyone not named Texas Tech, and BYU still spent the offseason getting talked about like an afterthought. That's the theme here: a team that went 11-2 and feels like it has something to prove. The qualitative profile backs up the frustration — this is an above-average offense, a top-tier defense, and a special teams unit that's above average across the board, the kind of overall shape that should command more respect than it gets. Bear Bachmeier returns as the starter, and while a quarterback did leave in the portal, it was backup McCae Hillstead heading to Utah State, not a change at the top of the depth chart. The bigger structural note is on defense, where Kelly Poppinga takes over the play-calling from Jay Hill with a group that continuity data pegs as stable, while the offense loses Parker Kingston, Chase Roberts, and Carsen Ryan and leans on arrivals like Walker Lyons, the transfer tight end from USC who brings real production, plus Kyler Kasper and Roger Saleapaga II from Oregon.

JP+ projects 7.6 wins, noticeably below the market's Under 8.5 lean, with Notre Dame at home, a trip to Utah, and a road game at TCU forming the toughest stretch of the slate against softer spots like Iowa State, Colorado State, and Utah Tech. The gap between the projection and the record BYU just posted comes down to offensive continuity — only 13% of targets return and the offensive line replaces significant pieces, even with Bachmeier back under center and defensive stability helping cushion the transition. If the retooled skill groups gel quickly around Bachmeier and Lyons becomes the safety valve BYU needs, this group can win the close ones against Notre Dame and Utah and push well past the projection. If the offense needs the first month to find itself, the defense alone won't be enough to erase last year's disrespect.