JP+ One-Sheet

BYU

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

7.6

Team Thesis

BYU Enters 2026 With a Chip on Its Shoulder and a Veteran Core to Back It Up. One loss all year to anyone not named Texas Tech, and BYU still spent the offseason getting talked about like an afterthought.

Model Profile

#30

JP+ Rank

#28

Offense

#28

Defense

+9.5

Overall

+4.6

Offense

+4.2

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

8.5

Market

7.6

JP+

8.8

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.9 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#38

Rated coverage66%

Candidate members80

Rated players53

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path92%

5-1 start36%

Collapse risk21%

36% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 92%. Collapse risk 21% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk7: 77% to 30%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the retooled skill groups gel quickly around Bachmeier and Lyons becomes the safety valve BYU needs, this group can win the close ones agains…

Bear Case

6-6

If the offense needs the first month to find itself, the defense alone won't be enough to erase last year's disrespect.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4