Ta'Quan Roberson returns as the starter, which technically preserves continuity at the position everyone worries about most in the Mid-American, but the supporting cast around him looks different. Buffalo lost Victor Snow (49.5 PPA) to NC State and Nik McMillan (41.6 PPA) to Kansas, gutting the receiver room that gave Roberson his top options a year ago, while Lamar Sperling's departure to UTEP thins the backfield too. The portal churn was heavy on both ends — 16 players out, 16 in — and the overall profile stays below average, with an offense that projects as bottom-tier and a defense that's below average but still the sturdier half of the operation. Buffalo went 5-7 a year ago, and the defensive front now has to replace pressure production without much proven depth behind it, a structural question that lingers even if special teams hold steady as a neutral factor.

JP+ pegs Buffalo at 6.4 wins, a number that reflects genuine uncertainty about how the passing game reshapes itself around Roberson without Snow or McMillan on the perimeter. The schedule offers a reasonable path — home dates with UMass, UAlbany, and Robert Morris should be manageable — but road trips to Penn State, Miami (OH), and Toledo will test whether the front seven can generate pressure without its departed edge pieces. If the receiver corps finds a reliable option or two and the defensive line replacements hold up against MAC competition, Buffalo can comfortably clear 6.5 and push toward bowl contention. If neither develops quickly, the offense's bottom-tier outlook becomes the story of the season and 5-7 repeats itself.