JP+ One-Sheet
Buffalo
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.3Team Thesis
Buffalo Enters 2026 Leaning on Roberson Amid a Thinned-Out Receiver Room. Ta'Quan Roberson returns as the starter, which technically preserves continuity at the position everyone worries about most in the Mid-American, but the supporting cast around…
Model Profile
#112
JP+ Rank
#125
Offense
#105
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
--
Market
6.3
JP+
7.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: --
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#118
Rated coverage64%
Candidate members67
Rated players43
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path71%
---6 start--
Collapse risk--
Bowl path 71%. Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 89% to 38%.
Bull Case
8-4If the receiver corps finds a reliable option or two and the defensive line replacements hold up against MAC competition, Buffalo can comfortabl…
Bear Case
5-7If neither develops quickly, the offense's bottom-tier outlook becomes the story of the season and 5-7 repeats itself.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Bowling Green | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.3 |