JP+ One-Sheet
Buffalo
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.4
Model Profile
#110
JP+ Rank
#124
Off Adj
#104
Def Adj
Overall
-8.3
Offense
-6.3
Defense
-2.6
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
6.4
JP+
6.7
SP+
Bowl Path75%
Fast Start67%
Collapse Risk2%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
67% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 75%. Collapse risk 2% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 88% to 38%.
Mid-American Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Ohio | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Buffalo | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Bowling Green | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Akron | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Kent State | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 |