Boise State's move into the Pac-12 comes with the one piece of continuity that matters most: Maddux Madsen is back at quarterback, and his return anchors a roster that otherwise saw real change. Nate Potter takes over as offensive coordinator for Dirk Koetter, while the defensive staff returns intact under the same coordinator who ran it in 2025. The offense projects as below average, a profile shaped by the loss of receiver Chris Marshall to Arkansas and running back Jambres Dubar to Missouri State, with Pitt transfer Juelz Goff and Kansas back Harry Stewart III brought in to rebuild the backfield. The defense, by contrast, grades out as above average, though role turnover and some coverage attrition mean the back end needs to answer questions quickly against Pac-12 competition. Boise State went 9-4 last season, and the Pac-12 debut is framed around Madsen, a veteran roster, and a chase for a conference title and second College Football Playoff appearance in three years — contingent on finally knocking off a Power Four opponent.

JP+ projects 6.9 wins, noticeably below the market's expectations, with the win total sitting at Under 7.5 and carrying a 33% edge in the model's eyes. Much of the gap traces to an offense replacing its top receiving weapon with a backfield built largely from portal additions, plus true road tests at Oregon, Fresno State, and Washington State that JP+ views as tougher than the schedule's reputation. Home dates with Utah State, Oregon State, and South Dakota offer the clearest paths to bank wins. If the defense's coverage unit holds up despite the personnel turnover and Madsen's continuity translates into a more efficient offense, Boise State's ceiling includes real contention for the conference and a return trip to the Playoff. If the secondary's replacement questions linger and the offense stays below average for stretches, this becomes a team that wins its home games and struggles to clear 7.