Boise State

The Broncos' historic Pac-12 debut centers around one burning question: can they finally break through against Power Four competition? Maddux Madsen returns as the starting quarterback with veteran experience across the roster, but Boise State's inability to beat elite opponents remains the primary obstacle between them and conference title aspirations. The Broncos grade out at +0.4 nationally (#65), carried by a defense that ranks 45th while the offense lags at 79th after losing receiver Chris Marshall (26.5 PPA) to Arkansas. New offensive coordinator Nate Potter inherits a unit that added Pitt transfer running back Juelz Goff (17.4 PPA) to help replace departed production.

JP+ projects 6.4 wins for the Broncos in their inaugural Pac-12 campaign, a total that reflects both the step up in competition and lingering offensive concerns. The defense (+1.8, #45) gives them a foundation to compete with Oregon, Fresno State and Washington State providing the sternest tests, while home games against Utah State, Oregon State and South Dakota offer opportunities to build momentum. If Madsen and the offense can finally solve Power Four defenses under Potter's guidance, the Broncos have the veteran leadership and defensive backbone for a conference title run and second College Football Playoff appearance in three years. If not, they'll remain a Group of Five program trying to crack college football's highest level.