Boise State

Maddux Madsen returns as starter to lead Boise State's historic Pac-12 debut, anchoring a veteran-heavy roster that's eyeing a conference title and second College Football Playoff appearance in three years — if the Broncos can finally solve their Power Four problem. The program rates 65th nationally at -0.2 points in JP+'s preseason rankings, carried by a defense that grades 44th (+1.5) while an offense that lost receiver Chris Marshall (26.5 PPA) to Arkansas struggles at 85th (-1.9). New offensive coordinator Nate Potter inherits a unit with mixed continuity after replacing Dirk Koetter, welcoming running back Juelz Goff (17.4 PPA) from Pitt to help offset departures.

JP+ projects 6.7 wins for the Broncos against a schedule featuring road tests at Oregon and Fresno State, with the model favoring the under on a 7.5-win market total. The gap stems largely from offensive uncertainty and coverage attrition in a secondary that lost key pieces, creating structural instability despite the experience elsewhere on the roster. If Madsen can elevate the passing game and Potter's system clicks quickly, Boise State has the defensive foundation to compete for a Pac-12 title. If not, the Broncos risk another season of falling short against elite competition.