JP+ One-Sheet
Boise State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.9
Model Profile
#78
JP+ Rank
#98
Off Adj
#46
Def Adj
Overall
-1.1
Offense
-2.6
Defense
+1.4
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
6.9
JP+
8.0
SP+
Bowl Path85%
Fast Start18%
Collapse Risk15%
Path Shape
Bowl live
18% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 15% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 97% to 62%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |