JP+ One-Sheet
Boise State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.7Team Thesis
Boise State Enters the Pac-12 With Madsen Under Center and a Defense That Has to Carry It Again. Boise State's move into the Pac-12 comes with the one piece of continuity that matters most: Maddux Madsen is back at quarterback, and his return anchor…
Model Profile
#70
JP+ Rank
#87
Offense
#43
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
6.7
JP+
8.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Bowl live
16% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 81%. Collapse risk 19% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 97% to 58%.
Bull Case
8-3If the defense's coverage unit holds up despite the personnel turnover and Madsen's continuity translates into a more efficient offense, Boise S…
Bear Case
5-6If the secondary's replacement questions linger and the offense stays below average for stretches, this becomes a team that wins its home games…
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |