Baylor

The Bears' offseason revolves around one central premise: quarterback DJ Lagway can transform an offense that wasn't quite good enough to push them over .500. Baylor grades out at +1.7 points nationally (#52), with the offense carrying most of the load at +2.8 (#37) while the defense drags things down at -1.7 (#86). The portal math worked heavily in their favor — 29 arrivals added 134.6 PPA compared to just 16.6 lost from 32 departures, headlined by Lagway's 51.0 PPA from Florida and edge rusher Ryan Davis's 48.5 PPA from Kansas State. New defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman inherits a unit that lost safety Mason Dossett to LSU but gained Freeman (17.5 PPA from Oklahoma State) to bolster the receiving corps after running back Bryson Washington departed for Auburn.

JP+ projects 5.7 wins for Baylor, sitting comfortably under the market's 6.5-win total with 24% expected value on the under. The gap stems largely from that defensive ranking — 86th nationally suggests too many shootouts against a Big 12 that can score in bunches, even with special teams ranking 8th nationally. Road trips to BYU and a neutral-site meeting with Auburn loom as potential season-definers, while home games against Colorado and Louisiana Tech offer chances to build momentum. If Lagway's dual-threat ability unlocks the ground game and Klanderman's Kansas State pedigree translates immediately, eight wins isn't unreasonable. If the defense remains a liability, another sub-.500 finish beckons.