Baylor

The Bears' offseason revolves around one massive addition: DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer quarterback who brings 51.0 PPA worth of production to an offense that desperately needed a playmaker. Baylor grades out at 66th nationally with a -0.2 rating, driven by a respectable offense (+2.3, 40th) but anchored by a defense that ranks 96th at -2.4 points per game. The portal class reshaped the roster with 32 departures costing 16.6 PPA while 29 arrivals added 134.6 PPA, headlined by Lagway and Kansas State edge rusher Ryan Davis (48.5 PPA). Running back Bryson Washington's departure to Auburn removes their leading ground threat, but Oklahoma State receiver Gavin Freeman (17.5 PPA) provides another weapon for Lagway.

JP+ projects 5.9 wins for a program coming off a 5-7 season, with the ceiling tied directly to how quickly new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman can fix a unit that allowed too many explosive plays. The former Kansas State coordinator inherits a defense with solid continuity but poor performance, while the offense faces quarterback transition uncertainty despite Lagway's arrival. If Lagway clicks immediately and Klanderman's system takes hold early, the Bears could push for bowl eligibility in a competitive Big 12. If the defensive struggles persist and offensive chemistry takes time to develop, another sub-.500 season looms.