JP+ One-Sheet
Baylor
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.3Team Thesis
Baylor's Offense Gets a Florida Transfer, While the Defense Waits on Joe Klanderman. DJ Lagway arriving from Florida is the story of Baylor's offseason.
Model Profile
#42
JP+ Rank
#25
Offense
#84
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
6.5
Market
6.3
JP+
5.9
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#40
Rated coverage78%
Candidate members65
Rated players51
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path70%
4-2 start63%
Collapse risk12%
63% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 70%. Collapse risk 12% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk11: 67% to 32%.
Bull Case
8-4If Lagway's transition happens on schedule and Klanderman's defense hits the stable floor its continuity suggests, Baylor pushes past the projec…
Bear Case
5-7If the passing game needs a half-season to gel, 6.3 wins is a fair reflection of where this roster sits.
Big 12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| Utah | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Kansas State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Arizona | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| Cincinnati | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Baylor | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Arizona State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.8 |