Ball State

Ball State's offseason centered on replacing significant offensive production lost to the transfer portal, with tight end Kameron Anthony (11.1 PPA) heading to Rutgers and receiver Eric Weatherly (8.8 PPA) among 18 total departures. The Cardinals rank 135th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at -17.5 points, with the offense bearing most of the burden at 135th (-9.9) while the defense grades slightly better at 128th (-6.7). Quarterback Kiael Kelly returns as the starter, but he'll need to build chemistry with new weapons like wide receiver Jabari Smith Jr. (9.8 PPA from FAU) and running back Johnny Thompson Jr. (1.5 PPA from Kansas) to compensate for the departed targets.

JP+ projects 4.1 wins for Ball State in 2026, reflecting the challenge of rebuilding offensive continuity in the competitive MAC East division. The schedule offers few gimmes beyond road trips to Kent State and UMass, while daunting matchups loom at Ohio State, Northwestern, and conference rival Ohio. If Kelly can quickly integrate the new portal arrivals and the defense maintains its relative strength, the Cardinals could surprise and approach .500. If the offensive chemistry takes too long to develop, another sub-.500 campaign becomes likely in a league where every game matters.