Ball State

Ball State enters 2026 with structural uncertainty at quarterback despite having a returning starter in Kiael Kelly, as continuity metrics suggest significant changes to the offensive foundation. The Cardinals rank 130th nationally in JP+'s preseason ratings at -15.3 points, with an offense grading out at 132nd (-8.7) and a defense checking in at 126th (-5.9). Portal activity reshaped the skill position groups, as the Cardinals lost tight end Kameron Anthony (11.1 PPA) to Rutgers and receiver Eric Weatherly (8.8 PPA), but added FAU transfer Jabari Smith Jr. (9.8 PPA) at receiver and Johnny Thompson Jr. from Kansas to bolster the backfield.

JP+ projects 4.2 wins for Ball State in a schedule that features road trips to Ohio State, Northwestern, and MAC contender Ohio as the season's toughest tests, balanced by home games against Sacramento State and Stony Brook. The gap between projection and potential market optimism likely stems from offensive concentration risk and coverage attrition on defense, where secondary depth remains a concern after losing key contributors. If the quarterback situation stabilizes quickly and Smith provides immediate impact at receiver, the Cardinals could push toward bowl eligibility in the competitive MAC East. If offensive rhythm takes time to develop, another sub-.500 campaign becomes the likely floor.