JP+ One-Sheet
Ball State
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.9
Model Profile
#132
JP+ Rank
#133
Off Adj
#124
Def Adj
Overall
-17.1
Offense
-9.7
Defense
-5.9
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
3.9
JP+
3.1
SP+
Bowl Path11%
Fast Start47%
Collapse Risk4%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
47% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 11%. Collapse risk 4% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 77% to 11%.
Mid-American Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Ohio | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Buffalo | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Bowling Green | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Akron | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Kent State | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| UMass | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |