JP+ One-Sheet
Ball State
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.9Team Thesis
Ball State Leans on Kiael Kelly Continuity While Reshaping the Skill Groups Around Him. Ball State's offseason theme is roster reconstruction around a quarterback who isn't going anywhere.
Model Profile
#133
JP+ Rank
#134
Offense
#127
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
3.9
JP+
3.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#121
Rated coverage62%
Candidate members66
Rated players41
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path11%
2-4 start43%
Collapse risk4%
43% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 11%. Collapse risk 4% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.9 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 75% to 10%.
Bull Case
5-7If Smith Jr.
Bear Case
2-10If the concentration risk at receiver lingers into October, another four-to-six win season looks like the outcome.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Kent State | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |